Polymarket Hot Markets — 2026-08-20

Predictions market data scraped from Polymarket. Volume indicates total amount wagered.

Total markets tracked: 20

🏆 Top 20 Markets by Volume

#	Market	Volume
1	Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028	$1.26B
2	Presidential Election Winner 2028	$689.6M
3	Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	$282.6M
4	What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?	$54.5M
5	Fed Decision in September?	$39.4M
6	What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?	$10.8M
7	What price will Bitcoin hit in August?	$10.8M
8	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	$5.0M
9	What price will Ethereum hit in August?	$3.0M
10	Elon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026?	$2.7M
11	Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas	$2.0M
12	Bitcoin above ___ on July 29?	$1.4M
13	FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC	$1.3M
14	Bitcoin above ___ on August 20?	$1.3M
15	Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto	$1.3M
16	Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox	$1.1M
17	Bitcoin above ___ on August 8?	$1.1M
18	Elon Musk # tweets July 27 - July 29, 2026?	$1.0M
19	Generali Open: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse	$970.0K
20	The Memphis Classic: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova	$777.7K

📊 Volume Distribution

Market categories by aggregate volume:

🗳️ US Politics (Elections)

Category volume: $2.23B

Presidential races, party nominees, 2028 election winner

• Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 — $1.26B
• Presidential Election Winner 2028 — $689.6M
• Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? — $282.6M

₿ Crypto (BTC/ETH)

Category volume: $365.6M

Bitcoin and Ethereum price targets for 2026 and monthly forecasts

• Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? — $282.6M
• What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? — $54.5M
• What price will Ethereum hit in 2026? — $10.8M
• What price will Bitcoin hit in August? — $10.8M
• What price will Ethereum hit in August? — $3.0M

🏦 Fed & Macro

Category volume: $118.5M

Federal Reserve decisions, interest rate expectations

• What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? — $54.5M
• Fed Decision in September? — $39.4M
• What price will Ethereum hit in 2026? — $10.8M
• What price will Bitcoin hit in August? — $10.8M
• What price will Ethereum hit in August? — $3.0M

⚽ Sports (Tennis/MLB/MLS)

Category volume: $7.5M

Tournament matches, game outcomes

• Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas — $2.0M
• FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC — $1.3M
• Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciarett — $1.3M
• Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox — $1.1M
• Generali Open: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse — $970.0K

🌍 Geopolitics

Category volume: $5.0M

Middle East strait traffic, international leadership

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? — $5.0M

🔑 Key Themes

1. 2028 US Presidential Markets Dominate — Over $1.9B combined volume in Democratic Nominee + Election Winner markets. Early positioning for 2028 election cycle.

2. Bitcoin Price Markets Active — Multiple BTC price milestone markets running ($54M, $10.7M, BTC above thresholds). Markets extend through 2026 and August 2026.

3. Ethereum Catches Speculative Interest — ETH 2026 and August price targets with $13.8M combined volume.

4. Fed September Decision — $39.3M wagered on Fed's September meeting outcome. High-stakes macro bet.

5. Sports Markets Volume — Tennis (Mubadala DC Open), MLB (Diamondbacks vs Red Sox), MLS (FC Cincinnati vs NYCFC) all active.

6. Elon Musk Tweet Counter — Weekly Musk tweet volume markets ($2.7M this week, $1M prior week) — high-frequency speculative play.

7. Geopolitical Interest — Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by Sept 30 ($5M) reflects Middle East shipping risk premium.

📈 Market Health Indicators

• Total volume across tracked markets: $2.37B

• Top 10 markets share: $2.36B (99.5%)

• US Politics volume: $2.23B (94.2% of tracked volume)

• Crypto markets volume: $365.6M (15.4% of tracked volume)

📡 About Polymarket

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market on the Polygon blockchain. Market prices represent the probability of an outcome occurring (e.g., $0.75 = 75% implied probability). Higher volume indicates greater market confidence and liquidity.

Data collected: 2026-08-20 | Source: Polymarket.com