Top prediction markets by 24h volume · 2026-08-15
Big Picture: The 2028 US election remains the dominant theme on Polymarket with $1.26B+ in volume on Democratic Nominee 2028 and $685M on Election Winner 2028. JD Vance leads Presidential Election Winner at 23%, while AOC leads the Democratic nomination at 20.4%. Geopolitical markets (Strait of Hormuz, Iranian blockade) continue to attract significant volume amid ongoing Middle East tensions. Fed rate decision markets show 75% probability for no change in September 2026.
| Candidate | Prob | Yes Price | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | 20.4% | 20.5¢ | ~4.9:1 |
| Gavin Newsom | 16.6% | 16.6¢ | ~5.0:1 |
| Jon Ossoff | 14.9% | 15.0¢ | ~5.7:1 |
| Kamala Harris | 7.4% | 7.5¢ | ~12.3:1 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.0% | 5.3¢ | ~17.9:1 |
| Josh Shapiro | 5.0% | 4.9¢ | ~19.4:1 |
| Mark Kelly | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | ~32.3:1 |
| Rahm Emanuel | 2.0% | 2.4¢ | ~40.7:1 |
| Andy Beshear | 2.0% | 2.3¢ | ~42.5:1 |
| Wes Moore | 2.0% | 1.6¢ | ~61.5:1 |
| Candidate | Prob | Yes Price | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 22.9% | 23.0¢ | ~3.3:1 |
| AOC | 13.4% | 13.4¢ | ~6.5:1 |
| Marco Rubio | 13.1% | 13.1¢ | ~6.6:1 |
| Jon Ossoff | 9.3% | 9.4¢ | ~9.6:1 |
| Gavin Newsom | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | ~10.1:1 |
| Kamala Harris | 4.0% | 3.9¢ | ~24.6:1 |
| Josh Shapiro | 3.0% | 2.6¢ | ~37.5:1 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.0% | 2.5¢ | ~39.0:1 |
| Tucker Carlson | 2.0% | 2.1¢ | ~46.7:1 |
| Donald Trump | 2.0% | 1.8¢ | ~54.6:1 |
High-volume geopolitical market. Full outcome data pending.
Middle East maritime tension — ongoing Iranian blockade threat keeps this market active.
Resolves on US official announcement of blockade end.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| No change | 75% |
| 25 bps decrease | 15% |
| 25+ bps increase | 7% |
| 50+ bps decrease | 3% |
Bitcoin price range prediction market for August 2026 settlement.
| Market | Volume | Category |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | $1,258.2M | 🗳️ Politics |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | $684.7M | 🗳️ Politics |
| Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | $277.4M | 🌍 Geopolitics |
| Fed Decision in September? | $33.1M | 🏦 Macro |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...? | $20.2M | 🌍 Geopolitics |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? | $14.5M | 🌍 Geopolitics |
| What price will Bitcoin hit in August? | $6.4M | ₿ Crypto |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: de Minaur vs Tsitsipas | $2.0M | 🎾 Sports |
| EWC 2026 CS2: Winner | $1.7M | 🎮 Esports |
| Bitcoin above ___ on July 29? | $1.4M | ₿ Crypto |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Navarro vs Cocciaretto | $1.3M | 🎾 Sports |
| Bitcoin above ___ on August 8? | $1.1M | ₿ Crypto |
| Elon Musk # tweets July 27-29 | $1.0M | 👤 Social |
| Bitcoin above ___ on July 26? | $0.8M | ₿ Crypto |
| Memphis Classic: Alexandrova vs Liutova | $0.8M | 🎾 Sports |
| Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury | $0.7M | 🏀 Sports |
| Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds | $0.7M | ⚾ Sports |
| Estoril Open: Jacquet vs Blockx | $0.7M | 🎾 Sports |
| UFC: Gigi Canuto vs Carol Foro | $0.7M | 🥊 MMA |