Big Picture: 20 markets tracked representing $0.38B in total volume. Geo-political markets (Ethiopia PM, US-Iran tensions, Strait of Hormuz) dominate top volume. Fed rate expectations showing 98% probability against September cut.
| # | Market | Category | Volume | Outcomes | Prices | |---|--------|----------|--------:|----------|--------| | 1 | Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | Global Elections | $266.9M | Yes $0.96 / No $0.04 | | 2 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Iran | $56.5M | Yes $0.17 / No $0.83 | | 3 | Fed Decision in September? | Fed | $14.0M | Yes $0.02 / No $0.98 | | 4 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause) | Ceasefire | $12.6M | Yes $0.72 / No $0.28 | | 5 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...? | Iran | $9.8M | Yes $0.02 / No $0.98 | | 6 | LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier | League Of Legends | $3.7M | Yes $0.5 / No $0.5 | | 7 | Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas | Games | $2.0M | Alex de Minaur $1 / Stefanos Tsitsipas $0 | | 8 | LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier | League Of Legends | $1.9M | Yes $0.5 / No $0.5 | | 9 | LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier | League Of Legends | $1.7M | Yes $0.5 / No $0.5 | | 10 | Bitcoin above ___ on July 29? | Bitcoin | $1.4M | Yes $1 / No $0 | | 11 | Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto | Games | $1.3M | Emma Navarro $0 / Elisabetta Cocciaretto $1 | | 12 | Bitcoin above ___ on August 5? | Bitcoin | $1.1M | Yes $1 / No $0 | | 13 | Dota 2: PlayTime vs Team Resilience (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs | Dota 2 | $1.1M | PlayTime $0.51 / Team Resilience $0.49 | | 14 | Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds | Baseball | $1.0M | Athletics $0 / Cincinnati Reds $1 | | 15 | Elon Musk # tweets July 27 - July 29, 2026? | Tweet Markets | $1.0M | Yes $1 / No $0 | | 16 | Generali Open: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse | Games | $969,957 | Vit Kopriva $0 / Ignacio Buse $1 | | 17 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs | Baseball | $950,450 | Los Angeles Dodgers $0.55 / Chicago Cubs $0.45 | | 18 | National Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Gabriel Diallo | Games | $787,677 | Luciano Darderi $0.42 / Gabriel Diallo $0.58 | | 19 | The Memphis Classic: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova | Games | $777,703 | Ekaterina Alexandrova $0 / Kristina Liutova $1 | | 20 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers | Baseball | $710,291 | Pittsburgh Pirates $0.12 / Milwaukee Brewers $0.88 |
1. Ethiopia Leadership Transition — $267M+ wagered on next Prime Minister, with Yes priced at $0.96 implying ~96% probability. 2. US-Iran Conflict Escalation — $57M on US invading Iran before 2027; No at $0.83 (83% probability of no invasion). 3. Fed Rate Cuts — September Fed decision showing 2% Yes / 98% No, strongly discounting a rate cut at next meeting. 4. Middle East Ceasefire — US-Iran ceasefire within 2 weeks: 72% Yes probability. 5. Strait of Hormuz Normalization — Only 2% probability of traffic returning to normal, reflecting ongoing regional tensions.
Geo-political and macro-economic markets continue to dominate Polymarket volume. Fed September meeting will be closely watched for any surprise decisions. Esports markets show healthy trading activity despite lower volume caps.
Data sourced from Polymarket on 2026-08-05. Volume data reflects total market volume.