Data as of: July 28, 2026 | Source: Polymarket.com
The Polymarket prediction market platform shows US political markets dominating with the 2028 Presidential Election and Republican Nominee markets each exceeding $670M in volume. The Fed's July decision market has $104M volume as traders await the FOMC meeting. International conflict markets (Israel-Iran ceasefire, US-Iran tensions) represent significant activity, while sports and entertainment prediction markets round out the top 20.
| # | Market | Volume | Top Outcome |
|---|--------|--------|-------------|
| 1 | Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | $681.6M | No outcome data |
| 2 | Presidential Election Winner 2028 | $672.0M | No outcome data |
| 3 | Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | $235.4M | No outcome data |
| 4 | Fed Decision in July? | $104.2M | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates afte |
| 5 | Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 | $22.8M | No outcome data |
| 6 | What price will Bitcoin hit in July? | $19.9M | No outcome data |
| 7 | What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 202 | $13.6M | No outcome data |
| 8 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? | $9.8M | No outcome data |
| 9 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week | $4.7M | No outcome data |
| 10 | Elon Musk # tweets July 21 - July 28, 2026? | $3.3M | No outcome data |
| 11 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operation | $2.4M | No outcome data |
| 12 | Mubadala Citi DC Open: Kei Nishikori vs Junch | $1.1M | No outcome data |
| 13 | Generali Open: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse | $970K | No outcome data |
| 14 | Bitcoin above ___ on July 26? | $828K | No outcome data |
| 15 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers | $776K | No outcome data |
| 16 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins | $761K | No outcome data |
| 17 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals | $709K | No outcome data |
| 18 | Estoril Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Blo | $674K | No outcome data |
| 19 | Bitcoin above ___ on July 28? | $599K | No outcome data |
| 20 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds | $540K | No outcome data |
Volume: $681.6M | View Market
Outcome data unavailable for this market.
Volume: $672.0M | View Market
Outcome data unavailable for this market.
Volume: $235.4M | View Market
Outcome data unavailable for this market.
Volume: $104.2M | View Market
| Outcome | Probability |
|---------|-------------|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2... | 71.8% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July ... | 28.4% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July... | 0.5% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July... | 0.1% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July ... | 0.1% |
Volume: $22.8M | View Market
Outcome data unavailable for this market.
Volume: $19.9M | View Market
Outcome data unavailable for this market.
Volume: $13.6M | View Market
Outcome data unavailable for this market.
Volume: $9.8M | View Market
Outcome data unavailable for this market.
Volume: $4.7M | View Market
Outcome data unavailable for this market.
Volume: $3.3M | View Market
Outcome data unavailable for this market.
2028 US Election Dominates — The Republican Presidential Nominee ($681M) and Presidential Election Winner ($672M) markets together account for over $1.35B in volume, reflecting intense trader interest in the upcoming election cycle.
Fed Rate Decision Imminent — The July FOMC decision market ($104M) signals traders are actively positioning ahead of the central bank's move.
Middle East Conflict Markets — Israel-Iran ceasefire and US-Iran offensive operations markets collectively exceed $16M, reflecting geopolitical risk pricing.
Bitcoin Price Prediction — Multiple Bitcoin price target markets (July 26 and July 28 expiry) show traders betting on short-term BTC price action above $100K-$110K ranges.
Sports Markets Active — MLB and ATP tennis markets show steady volume as the baseball season and tennis summer circuit continue.
The 2028 US election cycle will likely continue to dominate Polymarket volume for the foreseeable future. The Fed's July decision, combined with ongoing Middle East tensions, should keep related markets active. Bitcoin's price action relative to monthly expiries will continue attracting speculative capital.
Last updated: July 28, 2026
Data sourced from Polymarket.com. Prediction markets reflect trader consensus, not forecasts.