Polymarket Hot Markets — 2026-05-24
Big Picture
Polymarket continues to cement itself as the dominant venue for real-time crowd-sourced probability trading. May 2026 sees geopolitical markets around the US–Iran peace negotiations commanding the largest daily volumes, while the 2026 FIFA World Cup and 2028 US elections together represent over $2.5 billion in open interest. Crypto markets remain active around Bitcoin price milestones and AI-company valuations.
Top Developments
US–Iran Peace Deal Nears Completion — The flagship $158M market on a permanent US–Iran peace deal by year-end stands at 88%, with a diplomatic meeting market at 86% for July 31. The ceasefire continues to hold at 99%+, though airspace closure markets (16–39%) show lingering uncertainty.
2026 FIFA World Cup: France Favourite at $1B Volume — France leads winner odds at 18% with Spain close behind at 17% and Brazil at 13%. This market has attracted over $1 billion in total volume, making it Polymarket's largest active market.
OKC Thunder Dominate NBA Finals Market at 65% — The Thunder are clear favourites for the 2026 NBA Championship with $396M in volume. New York Knicks sit at 20%, San Antonio Spurs at 15%.
AI Company Valuations Near Parity with SpaceX — Anthropic reaching ≥$1T valuation by year-end is priced at 99%, while OpenAI IPO (73%) and SpaceX IPO at >$1T (99%) signal deep market conviction in the AI growth narrative.
2028 US Presidential Markets at $1B+ Combined — Gavin Newsom leads the Democratic nomination at 24% (AOC 9%), while JD Vance leads Republicans at 19%. These two markets together represent over $1.5 billion in volume.
Market Breakdown by Category
Geopolitics — US/Iran
| Market | Probability | Volume | Daily Vol | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran permanent peace deal (Dec 31, 2026) | 88% | $158M | $13M | 7 months |
| Iran ceasefire continues | 99%+ | $18M | $12M | Active |
| Iran diplomatic meeting (Jul 31) | 86% | $40M | — | 6 months |
| Iran closes airspace by Jun 30 | 39% | $35M | $6M | 7 days |
| Iran closes airspace by May 31 | 16% | $22M | $2M | 7 days |
| Iranian regime falls by May 31 | <1% | $28M | $2M | 7 days |
| Strait of Hormuz normal by end May | 16% | $22M | $2M | 7 days |
Crypto
| Market | Probability | Volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin hit $150k by Dec 31, 2026 | 10% | $18M | 7 months |
| MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin by Dec 31 | 81% | $31M | 7 months |
| OpenAI IPO by Dec 31, 2026 | 73% | $2M | 7 months |
| Anthropic valuation ≥$1T by Dec 31 | 99% | $604K | 7 months |
| SpaceX IPO market cap >$1T | 99% | $3M | TBD |
| Bitcoin above $88k on May 23 | <1% | $3M | Expired |
Sports
| Market | Probability | Volume | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner (France) | 18% | $1B | Spain 17%, Brazil 13% |
| 2026 NBA Champion — OKC Thunder | 65% | $396M | NYK 20%, SAS 15%, CLE 2% |
| NBA: Knicks vs. Cavaliers (May 23) | CLE 56% | $6M | Series |
| EPL Relegation — West Ham | 35% | $2M | Tottenham 32% |
| Bayern vs. Stuttgart (DFB-Pokal) | Bayern 100% | $3M | Final |
Politics & Elections
| Market | Probability | Volume | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2028 Democratic Nominee — Newsom | 24% | $1B | AOC 9% |
| 2028 Republican Nominee — Vance | 19% | $595M | — |
| Colombia President — de la Espriella | 55% | $30M | Iván Cepeda 40% |
| California Governor — Becerra | 62% | $25M | Tom Steyer 26% |
| 2026 House: Democrats retain | 81% | $7M | — |
Commodities
| Market | Probability | Volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude < $90 in May 2026 | 83% | $27M | May 31 |
| WTI Crude < $85 in May 2026 | 62% | — | May 31 |
Culture / Pop
| Market | Probability | Volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billboard Hot 100 #1 — Drake (May 30) | 96% | $3.4K | ~24 hrs |
| Billboard Hot 100 #1 — Ella Langley (Jun 6) | 83% | $2.3K | 9 days |
| Drake Billboard Top 10 — 9 spots | 100% | $57K | 6 days |
Looking Ahead
The next 7 days will be critical for the Iran ceasefire markets — all three airspace and regime-stability markets resolve by May 31. Crude oil markets also close at month-end. The NBA conference finals and Euro football leagues winding down will keep sports markets lively. Watch the US-Iran diplomacy track: a breakdown in talks would likely push the 88% peace-deal market sharply lower.
Data sourced from Polymarket as of 2026-05-24. Markets carry financial risk. This is not investment advice.